Trading Nonfarm Payroll Report
LATEST HEADLINES FOR THIS OCTOBER RELEASE
- Federal Reserve Push back on aggressive rate cuts
- Federal Reserve data dependant
- Federal Reserve are expecting unemployment rate to reach 4.4% by December 2024
- JOLTs Job Openings came in higher
- ADP Employment came in higher
- Initial Jobless Claims came in higher
FORECAST DATA
Nonfarm Payrolls – Forecast: 150k – Min: 70K – Max: 220K
Unemployment Rate – Forecast: 4.2% – Min: 4.1% – Max: 4.3%
STRONGER PRINT
Nonfarm Payrolls – Higher than 160K
Unemployment Rate – Lower than 4.2%
- Bullish USD
- Bullish Yields
- Bullish Equities
- Bearish Gold
WEAKER PRINT
Nonfarm Payrolls – Lower than 120K
Unemployment Rate – Higher than 4.2%
- Bearish USD
- Bearish Yields
- Bearish Equities
- Bullish Gold
BIGGER PICTURE
Labour market is now in focus with the Federal Reserve, lately more so than inflation.
If NFP comes in lower than expected and Unemployment rate comes in higher this will support a bigger rate cut in November for 50bps. We would expect to see weaker dollar, US equities, and bond yields.
If NFP comes in higher than expected and Unemployment rate comes in lower this will support the path of a 25bps rate cut in November. We would expect to see stronger dollar, US equities, and bond yields.
